In March, President Joe Biden approved a highly classified nuclear strategic plan for the United States, marking a significant shift in America’s deterrent strategy. For the first time, the focus has turned towards China’s rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal. This strategic pivot reflects growing concerns within the Pentagon that China’s nuclear capabilities could rival those of the United States and Russia within the next decade.
The strategy, known as the “Nuclear Employment Guidance,” is updated every four years, but this iteration is particularly noteworthy. It underscores a new reality in global nuclear dynamics—one where the U.S. must prepare for the possibility of coordinated nuclear challenges from China, Russia, and North Korea. The document is so classified that there are no electronic copies, with only a few hard copies distributed among select national security officials and Pentagon commanders.
China’s nuclear ambitions are at the heart of this strategic reorientation. Under President Xi Jinping, China has accelerated its nuclear expansion, moving away from its historical stance of maintaining a minimal deterrent. Instead, Beijing is now focused on achieving a nuclear arsenal that rivals those of Washington and Moscow. The Pentagon estimates that by 2030, China’s nuclear force could expand to 1,000 warheads, potentially reaching 1,500 by 2035. This rapid growth has caught American intelligence off guard, necessitating a re-evaluation of U.S. nuclear strategy.
The new strategy also highlights the evolving partnership between China and Russia, which poses a unique challenge to U.S. strategic planning. The possibility of these two nuclear-armed adversaries coordinating their efforts, along with North Korea’s growing nuclear arsenal, presents a far more complex deterrence scenario than in the past.
Senior administration officials, including Vipin Narang, a nuclear strategist who recently returned to academia after serving in the Pentagon, have subtly referenced this shift in recent speeches. They have emphasized the need for the U.S. to be prepared for simultaneous or sequential nuclear crises, employing both nuclear and non-nuclear responses as necessary.
As President Biden’s administration continues to grapple with these emerging threats, the new nuclear strategy is a stark reminder of the volatile global landscape. The potential for collaboration between nuclear-armed adversaries has fundamentally changed Washington’s approach to nuclear deterrence. As the Biden administration navigates these challenges, the implications of this strategic shift will likely shape U.S. nuclear policy for years to come.